Wednesday, January 16, 2008

So what does michigan mean? A look at the electorate

Last Nights results where not to shocking. Most People expected former Governor Mitt Romney to win Michigan with a decent margin, with the history he has in Michigan (he was born in there and his father was the Governor).

But, there is something very interesting to see when you look at how the electorate in each of these states votes. Each "group" if you will has a candidate that they like, and they are voting consistently in a similar matter.

Iowa- Former Governor Mike Huckabee took the Iowa caucus with a sizable margin. He was expected to win because of the support of little "c" Evangelicals (Evangelicals who care only about social conservatism). It seems that where ever these little c's are at, they will be propelling Mike Huckabee to the front.

New Hampshire- This is where John McCain took his first Victory. This was a open primary where a substantial amount of INDEPENDENTS who voted in the Republican Party. It seems when independent voters have a substantial amount of votes. John McCain is relying on there support in order to win.

Michigan - It was reported that over 60% of the voters in the Michigan Primary where "Mainstream Republicans." McCain took this state in 2000 because a far greater amount of independents voted. Mitt Romney took this state because a). The voters do not worry about a candidates religious views and b). Conservatives are voting, not independents and Democrats.

I think if a close look was taken to see how these states have voted in the past, we could make some pretty good predictions. However I do not think with the way polls and past voting trends have not mattered in this presidential race, it would be hard to predict. I do think if we look at these trends in a states electorate, we can make better state to state predictions.

If I had to take a guess based on these trends, I think South Carolina is going to vote for Huckabee, but we shall see.

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