Monday, November 19, 2007

The only problem will be convincing them he is conservative....

...Because being a Republican certainly is not the issue.
I am referring to up coming special election between Delegate Rob Wittman (R-VA99) and Phil Forgit, a former Iraq War veteran and school teacher. The election is being held to replace Jo Ann Davis, who served Virginia's first congressional district until she passed away recently after a long struggle with cancer.

The only interesting part of this race will be how big of conservative turnout he manages to push away on December 11 (REMEMBER TO VOTE)
I know it seems brash to assume Wittman will win, but looking at the district it would be hard to argue against it. Davis won 19 out of the 23 localities in the district in 2006, 17 of these localities show her receiving over 60 percent of the vote. George W. Bush also won 60% of the popular vote in the 1st district, only 2 points down from the percentage Davis achieved. Forgit's home locality of Williamsburg, was one of the few where Davis did not win. At least Forgit has something to bank on.

The only foreseeable problem I think Wittman will face is the accusation of being too moderate ( I heard someone compare him to former State Senator JeanMarie Devolites Davis, which to many Northern Virginia Republicans is a criminal offense). He voted to pass the Driver Abuser fee's, a hot button issue in the 2007 Virginia state elections. He also supported the Regional Tax authority, a big no no to most conservatives.

Still, even if most of the electorate finds out about these things,( and I tell you besides abuser fee's, most of the electorate does not know a thing about state politics) I doubt Wittman will be big enough of bad candidate or a RINO to not garner a plurality.

Unless Delegate Wittman manages to win my soon to be created "Screw up of the week" award, we can expect this seat to stay red.
For now, the outlook for this race is Strong Republican Lean.

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